Good morning. Protests against the government in Egypt are entering their 17th day today. Protesters remain camped out in Cairo's Tahrir Square and outside the People's Assembly, calling for Hosni Mubarak, the president, to leave office immediately.
The US and Egypt have got into a row over Washington's call for rapid change in Cairo. Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Egypt's foreign minister, has rejected a demand from the US that Cairo speed up the pace of reform. The US should not impose its will on a "great country", Aboul Gheit said.
An Egyptian man jumps over an anti-government protester sleeping in front of the door of his residence at Cairo's Tahrir Square this morning. Photograph: Pedro Ugarte/AFP/Getty Images
But the White House said Egypt's plans for change did not amount to enough to satisfy protesters. Robert Gibbs, the White House press secretary, said:
I think it is clear that what the government has thus far put forward has yet to meet a minimum threshold for the people of Egypt.
PJ Crowley, a spokesman for the US state department, said:
If there's some notion on the government side that you can put the genie back in this bottle, I think that's gone a long time ago.
Aboul Gheit also responded to calls by Joe Biden, the US vice-president, for Egypt's emergency law to be lifted, saying that the escape of 17,000 prisoners meant this was impossible.
Gibbs has previously hinted that Cairo's behaviour may affect US aid to Egypt.
But according to the Times today Saudi Arabia has said it would prop up Mubarak if the White House tried to force a change of regime, and would step in with financial aid if the US withdrew its assistance, which the paper says amounts to $1.5bn a year.
Egypt is the fourth-highest recipient of American aid after Afghanistan, Pakistan and Israel, with most of the money going to the Armed Forces. Slashing this was seen as a key weapon in Washington's armoury should it wish to force Mr Mubarak from office, but Riyadh's intervention seriously undermines America's leverage.
The White House declined to comment yesterday, saying that the Administration did not divulge what other leaders said to Mr [Barack] Obama.
Some protesters slept in front of Egyptian army tanks last night in order to serve as human barricades to prevent the tanks from driving into the square.
The BBC has a good map of the area.
The government refuses to give ground on the demonstrators' main demand, although Omar Suleiman, the vice-president, has promised there will be no reprisals against the protesters for their campaign to remove Mubarak. Mubarak has promised to stand down when his term expires in September, but the demonstrators want him gone now.
Demonstrators are accusing the government of playing for time and say they will not give up until the "half revolution" has been completed.
But the protesters are now in danger of losing momentum. Tomorrow's demonstration will be the biggest test, as protesters try to bring as many people out on to the streets as they could last Friday and this Tuesday. Tuesday's was the biggest demonstration yet, while yesterday protests spread to the parliament building.
Meanwhile in China, Ma Zhaoxu, a spokesman for the foreign ministry, has expressed support for Egypt's efforts to maintain stability and rejected the idea that foreigners should interfere with the country's government. He said:
China understands and supports the efforts made by the Egyptian side to protect social stability and return to normal law and order. We maintain that Egypt's affairs should be decided by Egypt alone, and should not receive interference from outside.
In the Guardian today:
• Chris McGreal reveals allegations of detention and torture made against the Egyptian army.
The Egyptian military has secretly detained hundreds and possibly thousands of suspected government opponents since mass protests against President Hosni Mubarak began, and at least some of these detainees have been tortured, according to testimony gathered by the Guardian.
The military has claimed to be neutral, merely keeping anti-Mubarak protesters and loyalists apart. But human rights campaigners say this is clearly no longer the case, accusing the army of involvement in both disappearances and torture – abuses Egyptians have for years associated with the notorious state security intelligence (SSI) but not the army.
I had been handed over to the security services after being stopped at a police checkpoint near central Cairo last Friday. I had flown there, along with an Iraqi-born British colleague, Abdelilah Nuaimi, to cover Egypt's unfolding crisis for RFE/RL, an American radio station based in Prague.
We knew beforehand that foreign journalists had been targeted by security services as they scrambled to contain a revolt against Mubarak's regime, so our incarceration was not unique.
Yet it was different. My experience, while highly personal, wasn't really about me or the foreign media. It was about gaining an insight – if that is possible behind a blindfold – into the inner workings of the Mubarak regime. It told me all I needed to know about why it had become hated, feared and loathed by the mass of ordinary Egyptians.
• Ian Black analyses the Egyptian regime's intentions and the role of Suleiman.
The first talks on Sunday were inconclusive. The impression is strengthening, say analysts in Egypt and abroad, that Suleiman is not serious about a constitutional review, a timetable for change, protecting freedom of expression, allowing peaceful protest, and ending the state of emergency. His remarks on Tuesday, rejecting an immediate departure by Mubarak or any "end to the regime", did not sit well with his wish to resolve the crisis through dialogue. His warning of a possible "coup" sounded like a threat of more overt military intervention than has been seen so far.
• And the Guardian's leader column looks at the two faces of Egypt.
I have just been speaking to the Guardian's Chris McGreal in Cairo. He told me that although today would probably not be a make-or-break day for the protesters in Tahrir Square, tomorrow would be much more important, as the last two Fridays have been, in determining exactly how strong opposition to the government has become.
Chris also explained a bit about the background to the diplomatic row between the US and Egypt's foreign minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit (see 9.53am).
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I've spoken to western diplomats who said to me that they are to some degree feeling that they've thrown their weight behind [vice-president Omar] Suleiman ... but they're not getting any results, and they feel that with the protests spreading, with strikes also now coming into play, that the situation could be even more destabilising.
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Chris McGreal mentioned (see 10.16am) the involvement of strikes in the protests, something that has been seen in some quarters as a significant addition to the composition of the demonstrators. The Associated Press news agency reports on today's strike by bus drivers and public transport workers across Egypt:
Ali Fatouh, a bus driver in Cairo says buses were locked in the garages and won't be moved "until we achieve our demands," which include salary increases. He says organisers are calling on all 62,000 transportation employees to participate.
Some buses were still seen on the streets early Thursday and it's not immediately clear how widespread the strike is.
But the effort comes as an uprising that began on 25 January has unleashed public rage over widespread poverty and low wages amid reports that Mubarak's family has amassed vast wealth.
My colleague Haroon Siddique sends this report on the April 6 youth movement.
The April 6 youth movement seems to have stepped up its online activities in the past couple of days, perhaps concerned about the degree of focus on the Muslim Brotherhood and its negotiations with the Mubarak regime. The April 6 youth movement is refusing to take part in the discussions with the government. In a couple of interesting messages sent to members of its Facebook page, it has respectively condemned the Brotherhood and Mohamed ElBaradei as "bourgeois" and warned of an impending attack by the army.
Quoting from an article entitled "The Arab revolution in danger" – and presumably therefore endorsing it, the youth movement posted this:
The US imperialism wants to make small changes in order to get the regime stronger in order to keep its essential aspects: The Army and Egypt's role as the main imperialist ally in the Arab world. Particularly, the US wants to preserve the political agreements between Egypt and Israel.
Obama and Hillary Clinton also criticised the attacks conducted by pro-Mubarak militia against protesters and journalists. They fear that these attacks will lead to a radicalisation on the revolutionary process, strengthening the self-defense groups and ruptures in the Army.
Vice-president Omar Suleiman, an ally of the American imperialism, hold a meeting with the bourgeois opposition parties to set the directives of the democratic transition. The main proposal is to set up a council to reform the constitution, so as to limit or abolish the emergency laws, and make easier the recognition of political parties, which today need to be endorsed by the regime to take part in the elections. Not a word about the immediate removal of Hosni Mubarak, the much hated Egyptian dictator, as well as nothing about the other popular demands.
Amidst the bargaining, the government announced 15% increase in the wages of all public employees, starting in April.
Mohamed ElBaradei and the Muslim Brotherhood did not accept the proposal but are really committed to the negotiation with the regime. They try to preserve themselves as bourgeois alternatives in case the regime is not able to stop the revolutionary process.
On the threat posed by the army, the 6 April youth movement writes:
There [is] news about Omar Suleiman's intention to attack the protesters in Tahrir Square, and this is right after he announced that he will not tolerate the protests any more and that Egyptians are not ready for democracy now, and after clashes between him and Samy Anan, the general military officer, after Anan refused to use violence against protesters.
The movement claims Suleiman's plan is to surround the square with soldiers disguised as normal civilians, attack them and then "free the place from the protesters".
Youth April 6 appeals to all human rights organisations and all people defending democracy to interfere immediately to stop this criminal plan to end our peaceful demonstrations.
Photograph: Emilio Morenatti/AP
My colleague Harriet Sherwood, the Guardian's Jerusalem correspondent, reports on a Facebook page urging people in the Gaza Strip to take to the streets tomorrow after Friday prayers, following a rally by several hundred students yesterday in solidarity with Egyptian protesters.
The Facebook page is advocating the overthrow of the Islamist Hamas regime in Gaza, according to DPA, the German press agency. "The young people of the beloved Gaza Strip will carry out a grand act that will change the face of history," the page says. "We derived our inspiration from the revolutions in green Tunisia and Egypt of the Pharoahs, which joined the struggle for freedom."
More than 2,300 had joined the page, called Honour Revolution (Thauret al-Karama), which is in Arabic only, by yesterday afternoon.
It urges an end to the split between Gaza, which is ruled by Hamas, and the West Bank, where Fatah dominates the governing authority. "We will go out to end the split and gain back our national unity in a peaceful way," it says.
The protest would unite Gazans, it said. "It is the revolution of the mosques, the churches, the factories, the universities, the unemployed and the Internet cafes."
According to the Palestinian news agency, Maan, several hundred students shouting "Gaza salutes the Egyptians" took to the streets of central Gaza yesterday.
Here is a picture of demonstrators doing their morning exercises at the protests in Tahrir Square today.
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Al Jazeera is reporting that the Egyptian army has entered the grounds of parliament for the first time.
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Photograph: Al Jazeera
Al Jazeera is now reporting live from Tahrir Square, where a great number of protesters can be seen, many of them sheltering under makeshift tents. They are chanting "Leave, leave". I should be hearing from Chris McGreal again as soon as he gets down there.
The Associated Press news agency reports:
Organisers planned another swelling of protesters on Friday, hoping to repeat a showing on Tuesday that drew about a quarter of a million people and helped revitalise the movement.
Khaled Abdel-Hamid, speaking for a coalition of groups behind the protests, said they wanted Egyptians to show up at six separate rallies on main squares in Cairo from which they would all march to Tahrir Square, which has been the focal point of the demonstrations.
Protests calling for Mubarak's ouster have been spreading since Tuesday outside of Cairo's Tahrir Square. Strikes also have erupted in a breadth of sectors among railway and bus workers, state electricity staff and service technicians at the Suez Canal, in factories manufacturing textiles, steel and beverages and hospitals.
Egyptians are very dependent on public transport, AP reports.
Mustafa Mohammed, a bus driver since 1997 who earns about 550 Egyptian pounds (about $93), said Egyptians deserve a better life.
"We are immersed in debts," the 43-year-old driver said as he joined a crowd outside the administration building on the outskirts of Cairo. "We are staying until our demands are met. If our demands are not met, we will join Tahrir, and camp there."
He said the administration sent a senior employee to "throw us a bone" with a holiday bonus but that wasn't enough.
Egyptians have been infuriated by newspaper reports that the Mubarak family has amassed billions, and perhaps tens of billions of dollars in wealth while, according to the World Bank, about 40 percent of the country's 80 million people live below or near the poverty line of $2 a day. The family's true net worth is not known.
Chris McGreal has filed a story from Cairo on the Egyptian foreign minister's rejection of US pressure on the government.
[Ahmed] Aboul Gheit said that the US should accept the extended timetable for political change outlined by the Egyptian leadership which centres on Mubarak resigning at elections in September.
"So for Americans to come and say 'Change is now', but already we are changing! Or 'You start now', we started last week. So better understand the Egyptian sensitivities and better encourage the Egyptians to move forward and to do what is required. That is my advice to you," he said.
Jack Shenker, who is also in Cairo, sends me the following on what he calls "the rapidly-collapsing facade of Omar Suleiman's 'peace talks'". These talks, says Jack, have exposed the Egyptian regime's lack of genuine interest in a transition to democracy. The Guardian's stories on both this and the allegations of torture regarding the army (see 9.53am) are causing a stir in Egypt, he reports.
What's been really interesting this morning though is the news filtering in about small-scale strikes and demonstrations breaking out in all manner of nooks and crannies across the country. When corruption and the primacy of wasta (connections or influence) is as institutionalised as it has been in Egypt over the past few decades, it affects everyone at every level – from the presidency down to the local cigarette kiosk at the end of the street. And when the anchors of that system appear to be crumbling at the top, as Ashraf Khalil persuasively argued in a piece for Foreign Policy yesterday, a sense that it is now possible to fight back quickly percolates down as well.
Hence entities that you would never normally associate with political activism are suddenly rising up in protest – from the Supreme Council of Antiquities to the Animal Research Centre, where staff claim their director has been siphoning off money destined for avian influenza programmes to buy personal villas in Alexandria.
Not all of these micro-dramas are explicitly political, and few of them will make headlines on their own. But they all add up to a growing sense that something fundamental is shifting in Egypt: people are no longer willing to accept the status quo power dynamics between themselves and their overlords, be they in the presidential palace or in the boss's office next door.
Ian Black, the Guardian's Middle East editor, discusses comparisons between the Iranian revolution of 1979 and the current Egyptian uprising made in a joint interactive programme involving the BBC Arabic and Persian services yesterday.
An Iranian caller warned Egyptians to take steps not to allow an Islamic government to take over. "Do you intend to let the Qur'an influence the new constitution after your regime changes?" he asked.
The caller from Cairo replied: "Absolutely not. We have no such intentions, as the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood have already assured. This is not an Islamic uprising. We intend to bring about a united revolution and are aiming for democracy and a secular and transparent government. This will not be a move toward Islamisation of our nation. We want to be a modern secular society like the western world. You don't hear any talk of an Islamic current being discussed among the protesters."
Another Cairene rejected the claim of an Iranian from Mashhad that the Iranian revolution of 1979 and the uprising in Egypt had "haunting similarities".
"This is not correct," the Egyptian replied. "There are many differences between what is happening in Egypt and 1979 [in Iran]. The leadership is different. Our movement calls for democracy and freedom. It is a popular movement without a particular ideology. Our demands are obvious and simple. This is a popular movement. It is not possible to describe is as an Islamic movement, because it is a revolution of all people."
Iranian and Arab callers both emphasised the importance of social media and Facebook.
Many compared the Egyptian protests to Iran's Green Movement and the post-election demonstrations in June 2009. They urged the Iranian opposition to learn lessons from Tunisia and Egypt. "They should not to go home when it gets dark in the evening this time," said one caller. People in Iran should "stay out until they prevail".
Protests are scheduled in Iran on Monday to mark the anniversary of the revolution.
BBC callers also discussed differences between the way plainclothes police, riot police, and the army treated demonstrators in each country. One viewer emailed to say: "The Tunisian military joined the people, the Egyptian army stood aside, and their police did not dare get very violent. But the Iranian armed forces decided to obey the rulers and turned their backs on their own people."
An Egyptian said: "These events are like a tsunami that will take down all dictatorships and will soon topple all despots in the region."
The Egyptian protests have clearly increased the power and influence of the Arabic language news broadcaster al-Jazeera and its English language sister channel. As my colleagues John Plunkett and Josh Halliday reported earlier this week, "the Qatar-based channel's acclaimed coverage of the Egyptian crisis has been referred to as the broadcaster's 'CNN moment', doing for al-Jazeera English what the first Gulf war did for CNN, pushing it to the forefront of the public's consciousness. Put simply, must-see TV."
The Associated Press reports this morning that the Egyptian government clearly ascribes significant influence to the channel – which you can watch online here – making it clear that, in the news agency's words, "it believes [the channel is] a chief culprit stoking the anti-government protests roiling the country".
AP points out that security forces have detained, and later released, at least nine al-Jazeera correspondents since the protests erupted last month. In addition, authorities have banned its Arabic and English language channels from broadcasting and revoked the press credentials of all of its journalists. The channel has continued to report despite the restrictions, disguising the identities of its correspondents on the ground. Reporters say they have removed their al-Jazeera logos from their equipment. One reporter, who did not wish to be named, said:
I am being mobbed by people on the street. They are watching state TV and think we're the enemy.
AP goes on: "Pro-government thugs set the Qatar-based network's Cairo offices ablaze, along with the equipment inside, as part of a broad pattern of attacks on journalists covering the unrest."
Omar Suleiman, the Egyptian vice-president, told Egyptian newspaper editors on Tuesday that "certain satellite channels" were provoking the protesters and insulting Egypt. A week earlier, he said: "I blame some friendly countries who own unfriendly channels that have fueled the youth against the country by lying and showing the situation as worse than it is."
AP analyses his comments thus:
While he hasn't named al-Jazeera outright, it is clear to Egyptians whom Suleiman has in mind, and such comments have served as a clear signal to the regime and its supporters to hit back at the network. And they have.
Besides the attack on its Cairo bureau and the detention of its reporters, al-Jazeera said its website was hacked. A banner advertisement on its Arabic-language site was taken down for more than two hours and replaced with a slogan reading "Together for the collapse of Egypt." The slogan provided a link to a page criticizing the broadcaster.
The network has even had trouble staying on the air because of high levels of interference in its broadcast signal. Al-Jazeera said the government shut off the channel's signal from an Egyptian satellite. Egyptians with satellite dishes could adjust them to point to other satellites beaming the al-Jazeera signal, but that is not easy to do. Since the cutoff, the channel has provided viewers the coordinates to make the change.
Jack Shenker has sent me this video of the Egyptian protests so far, which he says is currently doing the rounds. As one commenter points out, "Disturbing to see how many people have been run over by security forces in vans."
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On Twitter there are several reports of the Egyptian army "raising yellow flags near tanks" and many are asking what this means. In the comments, SanFranDouglas points to a tweet from Sandmonkey offering his explanation.
A friend says that the army raising yellow flags means they are preparing to use teargas. Good luck with that in this rain. #jan25
We can't confirm that.
Brian Whitaker, the Guardian's former Middle East editor, has also posted an email from the Egyptian embassy's press office in London. It reads:
Due to the unfolding events in Egypt, and in order to facilitate the work of foreign correspondents in Egypt, the State Information Service will issue a temporary identification card for all foreign correspondents in Egypt who have not officially registered their activities. I do hope for your kind cooperation with my colleagues in Cairo to offer your correspondents all necessary steps for facilitating their mission in an orderly manner and within the rules regulating their activities in Egypt.
Presumably the important bits in this are "in an orderly manner" and "within the rules regulating their activities" – ie if they don't like what journalists are doing they will concoct some rule to stop it.
Reuters is reporting that one of the Egyptian opposition parties has pulled out of the talks on reform with the government, saying Hosni Mubarak's administration has not responded to "the minimum level of popular demands". The Tagammu party is the first group to withdraw from the dialogue, which Omar Suleiman, the vice-president, began on Sunday in a response to the protests.
Demonstrators have dismissed the talks as irrelevant. The Muslim Brotherhood, a leading and formerly banned Islamist opposition group, said yesterday that the talks had not yet tackled the issues that triggered the demonstrations. But it has continued to take part.
Mohamed ElBaradei, the leading opposition figure who many see as a potential next president, was not invited to the talks and has said they lack credibility.
So far there has only been one dialogue session and no date has been set for another one, Reuters reports. Legal opposition parties such as Tagammu and Wafd had taken part, along with independent figures such as business tycoon Naguib Sawiris.
Explaining why it was pulling out of the talks, Tagammu criticised the government's handling of the dialogue, saying official announcements on what had been agreed were inaccurate. "Unacceptable statements" by officials had put participants "in confrontation with the popular revolution", it said.
Reuters reports:
After the first session, some of the opposition parties said the atmosphere had been positive, though the administration had not made any concessions that would satisfy the protesters.
Two opposition groups said participants had not signed a statement released after the meeting, which said they had agreed on measures including the establishment of a committee to study constitutional reform.
Mubarak, in a statement read by Suleiman on Tuesday, welcomed what he has called "the national dialogue".
Reuters is also suggesting that strikes in textiles, steel and telecommunications industries in Egypt suggest "a spirit of civil disobedience is spreading" in the country.
It is still unclear whether Egypt's unions, fractured and dispersed, can gain momentum and act in unison as happened in Tunisia, where an uprising unseated the president last month.
But the acceleration of the strike movement could push the country's army, now limited mostly to guarding streets and state buildings, to step in to avert economic paralysis, analysts say. It will also add to price pressures …
"Strikes have broken out everywhere, but there remains no structure in the form of unions to organise the strikes into one movement," said Hossam Hamalawy, an activist familiar with Egyptian labour movements …
If the strikes spread across the country, and paralyse key sectors, it could push Egypt's army to take sides, after trying to maintain an appearance of neutrality. "Labour strikes of that scale would provide pressure to bring a speedy end to the crisis," said Safwat Zayaat, a Cairo-based military analyst.
"The army would certainly not use tanks and force against striking workers," he said. "The army would likely stage a coup and announce a limited period of control."
Associated Press sends an interesting report on a number of aspects of today's protests.
• The government has threatened the army could crack down on the protests by imposing martial law. Ahmed Aboul Gheit, the foreign minister, told al-Arabiya that "adventurers" take over the process of reform the military "will be compelled to defend the constitution and national security ... and we'll find ourselves in a very grave situation." This followed his comments to PBS last night that there would be chaos of Hosni Mubarak stepped down immediately. "Do we want the armed forces to assume the responsibility of stabilizing the nation through imposing martial law, and army in the streets?" As AP notes, it was the second coup warning this week, with Omar Suleiman making similar threats on Tuesday.
• In the Suez Canal city of Port Said crowds have rioted over lack of housing for a second day, setting fire to the local headquarters of state security, the main post office and the governor's office, which had already been partially burned the day before. Police and soldiers did not seem to be intervening.
• AP also has more details on Tagammu, the opposition party which today pulled out of talks with government on reform (see 12.44pm). The news agenyc describes the party as leftwing and says: "Tagammu is one of the official, government-sanctioned opposition parties that have little public support and no role in the protests, and are seen by protesters as little more than extensions of the regime."
• Youth activists plan to "up the ante" with tomorrow's protests, calling for an expanded rally in Cairo, hoping to repeat Tuesday's success.
Khaled Abdel-Hamid, speaking for a coalition of groups behind the protests, said they wanted Egyptians to show up at six separate rallies on main squares in Cairo from which they would all march to Tahrir Square, which has been the focal point of the demonstrations. Thousands were packing the square on Thursday, vowing not to give up until the longtime leader steps down despite a host of sweeping government concessions. At the same time, protest organisers have made a concerted effort to bring labor movements into the protests …
On Thursday, hundreds of doctors in white coats marched down a street from the Qasr el-Aini state hospital to Tahrir, chanting "Join us, O Egyptian," witnesses said.
From another direction, crowds of lawyers in black robes marched from their union to the square, waving Egyptian flags and chanting "Mubarak, you pilot, how did you get $70bn?" a referring to the president's past as the air force commander.
Egyptians have been infuriated by newspaper reports that the Mubarak family has amassed billions, and perhaps tens of billions, of dollars in wealth while, according to the World Bank, about 40% of the country's 80 million people live below or near the poverty line of $2 a day. The family's true net worth is not known.
Here is a lunchtime summary:
• In Cairo, thousands of protesters are again demonstrating in Tahrir Square, where protests against Hosni Mubarak have taken place since 28 January. Meanwhile workers and union members are staging strikes and sit-ins at a series of firms and government agencies. Youth activists are hoping to make tomorrow's protests as big as those seen this Tuesday and last Friday (see 1.02pm).
• The government has threatened that the army could crack down by imposing martial law (see 1.02pm).
• A state-sanctioned opposition party, Tagammu, has pulled out of talks with the government on reform, saying Mubarak's administration has not responded to "the minimum level of popular demands" (see 12.44pm).
• Ahmed Aboul Gheit, the Egyptian foreign minister, has responded angrily to American suggestions that Cairo should pick up the pace of change (see 11.24am).
• In Port Said, hundreds of protesters demanding cheaper housing have torched a police station and at least 10 security cars (see 1.02pm).
• In Alexandria and the southern cities of Sohag and Assiut strikes and sit-ins have also taken place, according to reports.
Maplecroft, a company that analyses global risk, has sent me the following prediction of how events in Egypt could now pan out:
Events since protests were first launched on 25 January have mobilised the population in a hitherto unseen way. Whilst the current political stalemate has demonstrated that Egypt is not Tunisia, it has also shown the depth of public antipathy towards Mubarak and the speed with which people can mobilise. Overt opposition has forced the authorities to take a more responsive approach to public sentiment and criticism. In the long run, a drive against corruption and improved democracy will benefit Egyptian citizens and reduce the risks to businesses looking to operate in Egypt.
Nevertheless, the risks remain tangible and a relapse possible. It is incumbent on the government to match its promises of political reform with concrete actions or face continued protests. The economic risks to Egypt (food price inflation, unemployment, widespread poverty) still remain significant and a trigger for further unrest. The risk of a further spike in violence and instability will increase should Mubarak manage to cling onto power as the September 2011 presidential election date draws closer.
Investor confidence may take another blow and political instability will likely worsen should Mubarak be forced out of office before an interim government is put in place. Suleiman's veiled threat on 9 February to impose martial law (should the Tahrir square protests continue) has hardly calmed investor concerns. Such a move would likely catalyse widespread violence and disruption.
Blogger Sandmonkey has just tweeted that Mubarak is to appear on TV tonight.
This might end tonite, hussam badrawy just said mubarak is coming on TV tonite to answer the people's demands. Fingers crossed. #jan25
Some updates courtesty of Reuters:
• The business community is concerned about the economic impact of the ongoing protests and strikes.
• Reuters says the army has been "praised" by demonstrators in Cairo, where it "continues to stand by, overseeing" the protests. "Pro-democracy protesters consolidated a new encampment around Cairo's parliament building and the main focus of the opposition, Tahrir, or Liberation, Square remained crowded. Organisers were looking forward to another major push on the streets on Friday when protesters said they plan to move on to the state radio and television building."
• Yet the news agency also reports US human rights group and Egyptian activists' claims that the Egyptian army has detained dozens of protesters and "abused" some of them in custody, as the Guardian revealed today.
Reuters carries this denial from the army:
The armed forces denies any abuse of protesters. The armed forces sticks to the principle of protecting peaceful protesters and it has never, nor will it ever, fire at protesters.
Hossam Bahgat, executive director of the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, said:
It is a major step backwards with regard to respect for human rights for the army to be part of the apparatus of abuse. They are not neutral and they are new to this.
Bahgat said the number of people detained could be higher since families may not have been informed.
Some readers have asked about Kareem Amer, the blogger who served a four-year term for insulting Murbarak before being released and detained again on 6 February. According to the Reuters report, he is still in detention.
On the righthand side of this blog, my colleague Brian Whitaker, the Guardian's former Middle East editor, picks out the best blogposts and links on the region. He has linked to this Foreign Policy piece on the rise of al-Jazeera (see 11.56am). The article says "undemocratic regimes across the region are now looking over their shoulder at al-Jazeera" and ask: could al-Jazeera threaten Saudi Arabia?
The situation is delicate in Saudi Arabia, where the regime is wobbling on the cusp of change. The kingdom either directly or indirectly controls most of the Arab media, including al-Jazeera's principal rival al-Arabiya, but it remains highly vulnerable to the kind of palpitations al-Jazeera could easily provoke.
Bilateral relations between tiny Qatar and its overbearing neighbor Saudi Arabia have always been sensitive. Since 1996, when al-Jazeera first challenged Saudi hegemony in the region, the channel has been a constant point of tension between the two. For years, the Saudis dominated the Arabian Peninsula and often meddled in Qatari politics. On several occasions in the 1990s, the Saudis simply invaded Qatar to remind it who was boss and, following Sheikh Khalifa's deposal, Riyadh tried to manipulate his return by organizing a countercoup.
But despite all the problems the Qataris have had with the Saudis, they are fully aware that if they upset the kingdom it is at their peril. As a result, coverage of Saudi affairs on Al Jazeera has not been as bold as coverage of Egypt and Tunisia.
The channel was finally allowed to open an office in Saudi about two weeks ago, Foreign Policy reports. The article goes on:
It's an issue of proximity and power. Despite the channel's exceptional job in covering the turmoil in Tunisia and Egypt, the complex relationship with Saudi Arabia is a reminder that even for al-Jazeera, in the Persian Gulf free press has its limits. History will record the channel's crucial galvanizing role in the extraordinary events that are now unfolding in Egypt and Tunisia. But whether the al-Jazeera effect will continue to ripple across the Middle East or the heavy hand of state pressure will attempt to shut Pandora's box again – however temporarily – is yet too close to call.
Lindsey Hilsum of Channel 4 News is reporting that Hosni Mubarak is going to transfer his powers to Omar Suleiman, his vice-president, tonight. More as soon as I get it.
Hilsum reports that Hossam Badrawi, the secretary general of Mubarak's NDP party, has told her in that over three meetings yesterday and a phone call today he convinced Mubarak to stand down and hand his powers to Suleiman. He will do this in a broadcast tonight, she says.
I am also hearing conflicting rumours that Mubarak will use a speech on TV tonight to hand his powers to the army. It is unclear if this will mean martial law to clear the protests, or a permanent exit for the president. Badrawi has told BBC Arabic that Mubarak will "answer the people's demands" in the coming hours. My colleague Jack Shenker told me: "Protesters aren't certain whether they should be preparing themselves for a celebration party or a massacre."
The BBC is reporting that Mubarak "may be stepping down". It reports:
A senior member of Egypt's ruling party has told the BBC he is "hoping" that President Hosni Mubarak will transfer power to Vice-President Omar Suleiman.Hossan Badrawi, the secretary general of the National Democratic Party (NDP), said Mr Mubarak would "probably" speak to the nation tonight.
His comments came after Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq told BBC Arabic that the scenario of President Mubarak stepping down was being discussed.
Al-Jazeera is reporting that the "supreme council" of the Egyptian armed forces are meeting to discuss the situation and an army source has said that "all the protesters' demands will be met". Of course, one of their key demands is that Hosni Mubarak resign as president. According to the TV channel the army is expected to make a statement today. Euphoria has gripped the crowd in Cairo's Tahrir Square, al-Jazeera's correspondent says.
Here is what the Associated Press has been hearing:
CAIRO (AP) A senior army commander has told Egypt protesters that all their demands will be met.
CAIRO (AP) Security official says Egypt's supreme military council has been meeting all day.
CAIRO (AP) Military officials say army will issue communique shortly that will meet protesters' demands.
My colleague Jack Shenker in Cairo says he has been told by one protester that if Omar Suleiman takes over from Mubarak, "all that will happen is that everyone in Tahrir will rewrite their signs, and then carry on demonstrating".
Egyptian state TV has just been playing a statement from the supreme council of the armed forces. The army says it is going to convene regularly to safeguard the interests of the people.
Mubarak is not present at the military supreme council meeting, according to footage the military has released – something al-Jazeera claims is significant.
The crowd in Tahrir Square has been chanting "the army and the people stand together, the army and the people stand united".
The crowd in Cairo's Tahrir Square is now cheering loudly, and is now calling again for the fall of the Mubarak regime. The crowd are heading towards a giant screen in the square.
AFP is reporting an army source as saying: "We are awaiting orders that will make the people happy."
To sum up: Hosni Mubarak will meet the demands of protesters, officials from the military and the ruling NDP party have told various news organisations. The protesters' key demand is that Mubarak stand down as president.
The military's supreme council has been meeting today, without Mubarak, who is the commander in chief, and announced on state TV its "support of the legitimate demands of the people".
A spokesman said the council was in permanent session "to explore what measures and arrangements could be made to safeguard the nation, its achievements and the ambitions of its great people".
General Hassan al-Roueini, the military commander for the Cairo area, told thousands of protesters in central Tahrir Square: "All your demands will be met today."
Interviewer: "Wasn't the protesters' message clear for President Mubarak to step down and pass his responsibilities to vice-president Omar Suleiman?"
Shafiq: "What you say is being discussed now. Whether it is positive or negative, this will be clarified soon."
I have just been speaking to my colleague Chris McGreal, who confirms there has been a sudden change in the atmosphere since the news from the military in the last half an hour. The feeling now in Cairo is "Boom: this changes everything", he said.
Reuters is reporting a CIA official as saying that Mubarak is strongly likely to step down tonight.
An Egyptian official has told the news agency Mubarak's fate will be decided in a matter of hours and "most probably" he will step down.
Here is Reuters's translation of the state news agency Mena's statement on the army council meeting:
The Higher Army Council held a meeting today under Hussein Tantawi the head of the armed forces and minister of defence to discuss the necessary measures and preparations to protect the nation, its gains and the aspirations of the people. The council decided to remain in continuous session to discuss measures that can be taken in this regard.
Blogger Sandmonkey has been sending some vivid tweets on the situation:
I am going to tahrir. It started there and will end there tonite. #jan25
Thousands are headin to tahrir carrying flags. :) #jan25
Thousand chanting that mubarak should wake up coz tonte is the last night. #jan25
Some contradiction of these reports from Egypt's information minister, Anas el-Fekky, according to Reuters. He said:
The president is still in power and he is not stepping down. The president is not stepping down and everything you heard in the media is a rumour.
More unverified accounts of what is happening in Egypt. Mubarak is still in negotiations over whether to hand power to Suleiman, according to Reuters. An Egyptian official told the news agency: "It is not decided yet ... It is still in negotiation."
This is the quote from Leon Panetta, the head of the CIA:
There's a strong likelihood that Mubarak may step down this evening, which would be significant in terms of where the, hopefully, orderly transition in Egypt takes place.
The Associated Press notes that the army council's statement was labeled "communique number one", which the news agency says is "a phrasing that suggests a military coup".
Omar Suleiman, the vice-president, was not at the army council meeting either, the Associated Press reports.
Hossam Badrawi, the secretary general of Mubarak's NDP party, has reiterated to the BBC that he wants the president to step down, and said that is the position of the whole of the NDP. Badrawi told the BBC what he wanted Mubarak to say to Egypt:
That he has fulfilled his promises to the people, he respects the requests of the young people in the street, and he is doing the right step to keep the country intact and hand the power to the vice-president.
My colleague Alexandra Topping has filed a story on the resignation rumours.
Al-Arabiya television is reporting that Mubarak has travelled to the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh with his army chief of staff.
The prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq, says Mubarak is still in power and no decisions have been taken that would change that. Shafiq said:
He is in his position. No decisions have been passed on from the president. Everything is normal. Everything is still in the hands of the president. The supreme leader [Mubarak] is informed of everything going on inside the Higher Military Council.
From my colleague Peter Beaumont:
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So Egypt's military council statement is communique number 1 of er how many? getting a definite coup-y type vibe
peter beaumont
petersbeaumont
The White House has said the situation in Egypt is "fluid" and they do not know anything about Mubarak's plans.
Al-Jazeera is reporting that the NDP chief reportedly stopped Mubarak making a speech handing power to Suleiman.
Egyptian state TV says Hosni Mubarak will speak to the nation from his palace in Cairo this evening.
There are rumours state TV employees are leaving the building for fear of a coming backlash.
We've embedded a live stream of Reuters pictures from Tahrir square at the top of this page. You'll need to manually refresh the page to see it.
There are reports that Mubarak left Egypt yesterday after recording a statement to be broadcast today – obviously unconfirmed.
My colleague Brian Whitaker, the Guardian's former Middle East editor, sends this analysis:
It now seems clear that Mubarak is about to go (especially since the information minister is denying it) and the army is about to come to the fore.
Beyond that, the picture is still unclear. Does it mean vice-president Suleiman will also be going, or not? The army and Suleiman running Egypt together is not a prospect that would please many Egyptians, despite their relief at Mubarak's departure.
Another option would be a military takeover, probably with a new military-led government (but including a substantial proportion of civilians) and a promise of new elections within a year or so. From the demonstrators' point of view that's not very attractive either, though it might offer better prospects for dismantling the Mubarak regime ahead of elections. The US seems to have a fair amount of leverage over the military and would probably try to ensure that military rule did not last too long.
At this stage, though, we can't be sure of anything and there could be more surprises in store.
I've just been on the phone to Jack Shenker in Tahrir Square, Cairo. He said that in contrast to previous days when people have ebbed away from the square in the evening, tonight people are "streaming in". There is triumph and celebration, but also uncertainty as rumours swirl around the square. But if Mubarak stands down, there will be the "greatest street party in Africa and the Middle East" in Cairo tomorrow.
With Jack was Nour, an Egyptian activist who was arrested along with Jack a couple of weeks ago, who gave me a picture of the mood among protesters in the square. He said he had been dreaming about this moment since he was a child, but "it's only been dreams until very recently".
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Sky is reporting that Mubarak will speak within two hours.
Egyptian state TV is changing its tune, according to my colleague Martin Chulov:
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Egypt state TV running now on 'Egypt is Changing'. Total about face and best pointer yet to the end of Mubarak
Martin Chulov
martinchulov
A senior member of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's biggest opposition group, said on Thursday he feared the Egyptian army was staging a military coup.
"It looks like a military coup ... I feel worry and anxiety. The problem is not with the president it is with the regime," Essam al-Erian told Reuters.
Barack Obama has been speaking. "We want all Egyptians to know America will continue to do every thing that we can to support an orderly and genuine transition to democracy in Egypt," he said. "We are witnessing history unfolding," he said.
On Sky News, the Egyptian finance minister, Samir Radwan, was asked if this was a momentous day for Egypt. He said:
Absolutely. I've always said that these young people, men and women, have blown the whistle ... We've ignored them for too long. It's about time we took them seriously, got them to participate.
But he said the opposition parties were currently too weak with "no base" and the next task was to strengthen them.
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Protesters in Cairo's Tahrir Square this evening. Photograph: Patrick Baz/AFP/Getty Images
The Egyptian finance minister, Samir Radwan, has just told Sky News that Suleiman has been running Egypt for the last week.
In the US, James Steinberg, the deputy secretary of state, said Washington was committed to ensuring that political changes in the Middle East did not threaten Israel and that any Egyptian government honours the treaty with Tel Aviv.
We are ending this live blog here and continuing our coverage of events in Egypt, where president Hosni Mubarak is reported to be about to stand aside, on this new blog.
I'm handing over to my colleague Richard Adams now. Thanks for all your comments and input.
We are ending this live blog here. Our coverage of events in Egypt, where president Hosni Mubarak is reported to be about to resign tonight, continues on this new live blog.
"The revolution will not be televised" according to Gil Scott Heron – turns out he was wrong, at least in Egypt at this point.
Hello from Washington DC, where the US cable TV networks are all focused intently on Egypt, as hopes grow that Mubarak will be gone tonight.
According to CNN – which is doing a fine job today – its sources are saying that the military will take control at some point, with a particularly droll quote from a "senior Egyptian official":
"It's not a coup, it's a consensus."
This blog has now ended. Coverage continues here
Egyptian state television is running some sort of strange patriotic promo for Mubarak's appearance tonight, scheduled for 8pm GMT, with people shaking hands with the military and waving flags.
It is remarkably reminiscent of the BBC satire The Day Today's "It's alright," a film held in reserve for times of crisis.
Now the Egyptian information ministry is saying that Mubarak is not going to stand down, according to state television.
More when we get it.
The Associated Press has just run a flash: "CAIRO (AP) — State TV: Egypt's information minister denies that Mubarak will step down."
At this point it's hard to know what to believe.