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Paul Maskey
Sinn Fein's Paul Maskey stands outside a polling station in west Belfast Photograph: Paul Mcerlane
Sinn Fein's Paul Maskey stands outside a polling station in west Belfast Photograph: Paul Mcerlane

The Kingdom will remain United – in Ireland, at least

This article is more than 12 years old
The latest Northern Ireland Life and Times survey reveals that 73% want to stay inside the UK

So much, then, for the break-up of Britain. The United Kingdom is safe – at least when it comes to Northern Ireland. Whatever Alex Salmond is attempting to do in Scotland, in the north-east part of the Emerald Isle the future remains orange rather than green.

The respected Northern Ireland Life and Times survey released its latest findings this week on political attitudes towards the province's constitutional status. Overall, it found a large majority, 73%, in favour of staying inside the UK.

Most significantly, the poll of 1,200 Northern Irish citizens revealed that 52% of Catholics favoured the union with Britain rather than a united Ireland. In a further blow to the hopes of a united Ireland advanced by the likes of Sinn Féin, only 4% of Protestants want Irish unity. They continue to solidly favour the status quo, even if many of them do not vote in local elections.

A lot has been made of the widespread apathy towards the political system in the north of Ireland. In the recent byelection in west Belfast, there was a pitiful turnout of unionist voters in the loyalist-Protestant heartland of the Shankill Road.

In some boxes in Shankill polling booths, only 28 votes were cast in a constituency that is Sinn Féin-dominated. The republican party took the seat with some ease as Paul Maskey replaced the Sinn Féin president, Gerry Adams, as the MP for the area.

This apathy should not lull republicans and nationalists into the illusion that the "Prods" have given up. For when it comes to the existential question of the state, unionists will always vote to keep themselves unionists.

Adams has moved south of the border and represents the Louth constituency in the Dail. His party more than doubled its seats in the Irish parliament, and has used its new prominence to launch yet another campaign for Irish unification.

The fact, however, that Sinn Féin has started a fresh attempt to put a united Ireland top of the agenda as the results of the Life and Times survey emerge is apposite. The survey highlights a paradox facing the party. While it enjoys robust support and a growing presence in the two Irish parliaments, its basic goal is further away from being achieved than ever before.

Yes, there is widespread support for the power-sharing settlement in the north. Yes, there is renewed influence for Sinn Féin in Dublin after several years of seat losses and setbacks.

And yes, despite negative publicity over Adams (and other Sinn Féin figures') alleged IRA past – a past he denies but which other IRA veterans confirm – there is some admiration for the way he steered the republican movement out of the cul de sac of the armed struggle.

Yet behind the rhetoric and rally cries, the reality is that, for the foreseeable future, there will be no united Ireland. Given the stark economic challenges facing a near-bankrupt Republic, unity is a far-off prospect.

The implication for the UK is clear: while the micro-picture of devolved government indicates rising support for nationalist parties (particularly those opposed to the Con-Dem government's austerity programme), the macro-picture indicates that the United Kingdom may not be in such jeopardy as some commentators and anti-unionists imagine.

Of course, nothing is fixed in politics. Attitudes towards the UK may change with generational shifts, although the 4% figure for pro-united Ireland Protestants is very telling.

Because even if the Life and Times Survey was 10 percentage points out and there was just a 50% plus pro-Irish unity majority among Catholics, overall the pro-union vote would still be higher.

Food for thought for those in Scotland and Wales who are opposed to any moves to break the British connection.

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