Good evening. Tonight Barack Obama makes a televised address to announces his plans to withdraw as many as 30,000 US troops from Afghanistan – as public opinion polls show US voters backing a reduction in US forces in the wake of the death of Osama bin Laden.
Obama's address to the nation begins at 8pm ET – 1am in the UK – and we'll be offering live coverage of the speech and the reaction surrounding it right here.
You can watch Obama speak from the comfort of your own computer through a live video feed being hosted by the White House's site. And you can contribute to the debate by sharing comments with readers below.
A US Marine patrols in Helmand province, 2008. Photograph: Rafiq Maqbool/AP
So what are we looking for? The big question is how many troops – 30,000 by most accounts – but more importantly, how quickly. This year? By the end of 2012?
The Guardian's defence correspondent Nick Hopkins outlines the options that Obama faces:
President Obama has been presented with a range of possible scenarios for the US military drawdown in Afghanistan and has to try to reconcile passionately felt interests – all within the context of a re-election campaign.
All his advisers agree that his statement on Wednesday night will set the tone for the rest of the nations contributing to the International Security and Assistance Force (Isaf).
And it could also have a significant effect on the long-term future and stability of a country that has been ravaged by successive conflicts over the past 30 years.
The New York Times claims to have the contents of Obama's announcement tonight: 10,000 US troops to be gone by the end of the year, and another 20,000 by the final quarter of 2012:
President Obama plans to announce Wednesday evening that he will order the withdrawal of 10,000 American troops from Afghanistan this year, and another 20,000 troops, the remainder of the 2009 "surge," by the end of next summer, according to administration officials and diplomats briefed on the decision. These troop reductions are both deeper and faster than the recommendations made by Mr Obama's military commanders, and they reflect mounting political and economic pressures at home, as the president faces relentless budget pressures and an increasingly restive Congress and American public.
Obama's speech tonight will be from the East Room of the White House, rather than the Oval Office, causing a stir among the status-obsessed White House press corps, according to AP:
For Wednesday's speech, the White House said only one print reporter and one still photographer would be allowed to watch, along with the regular television crew. The White House said the level of coverage was standard for prime-time Oval Office addresses, when the president's team wants to minimize possible distractions.
Some reporters complained that this amounted to less access and that there was little chance of distraction in the East Room, the largest room in the building. The White House refused to change the ground rules.
As several people have pointed out, even after withdrawing 30,000 troops that still leaves 70,000 US military personnel in Afghanistan – more than when Barack Obama became president in January 2009.
Here's the Guardian's latest coverage of the withdrawal, with additional details:
Barack Obama will begin the long retreat from Afghanistan, he is expected to say in a televised statement to the US, as well as declaring success against al-Qaida and the Taliban, and the withdrawal of about a third of US forces next year.
About 33,000 US troops would be withdrawn by September at the latest, according to CBS News. The first 5,000 would return next month and another 5,000 by the end of the year. Military chiefs fear Obama is taking a gamble with the scale of early drawdown. He is ignoring the advice of US and Nato commanders who warned that withdrawal of anything more than a few thousand in the coming months could endanger substantial gains made over the winter in the battle against the Taliban.
The full text of Obama's speech has come through, and here's the key paragraph – 33,000 troops out by next summer (in the US presumably, so September 2012) and more to follow:
Thanks to our men and women in uniform, our civilian personnel, and our many coalition partners, we are meeting our goals. As a result, starting next month, we will be able to remove 10,000 of our troops from Afghanistan by the end of this year, and we will bring home a total of 33,000 troops by next summer, fully recovering the surge I announced at West Point. After this initial reduction, our troops will continue coming home at a steady pace as Afghan Security forces move into the lead. Our mission will change from combat to support. By 2014, this process of transition will be complete, and the Afghan people will be responsible for their own security.
Unrelated fact: the 2012 US presidential election is on 6 November 2012.
More from the text of Obama's speech, and he mentions the talks with the Taliban:
We do know that peace cannot come to a land that has known so much war without a political settlement. So as we strengthen the Afghan government and Security Forces, America will join initiatives that reconcile the Afghan people, including the Taliban. Our position on these talks is clear: they must be led by the Afghan government, and those who want to be a part of a peaceful Afghanistan must break from al Qaeda, abandon violence, and abide by the Afghan Constitution. But, in part because of our military effort, we have reason to believe that progress can be made.
In his conclusion, Obama turns towards the cost of the war and domestic priorities:
Over the last decade, we have spent a trillion dollars on war, at a time of rising debt and hard economic times. Now, we must invest in America's greatest resource – our people. We must unleash innovation that creates new jobs and industry, while living within our means. We must rebuild our infrastructure and find new and clean sources of energy. And most of all, after a decade of passionate debate, we must recapture the common purpose that we shared at the beginning of this time of war. For our nation draws strength from our differences, and when our union is strong no hill is too steep and no horizon is beyond our reach.
America, it is time to focus on nation building here at home.
Again, the 2012 presidential election is on 6 November 2012.
Barack Obama delivers his address from the East Room of the White House. Photograph: Pablo Martinez Monsivais/Pool
Obama is now speaking from the East Room – here's the full text of the speech:
Good evening. Nearly ten years ago, America suffered the worst attack on our shores since Pearl Harbor. This mass murder was planned by Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda network in Afghanistan, and signaled a new threat to our security – one in which the targets were no longer soldiers on a battlefield, but innocent men, women and children going about their daily lives.
In the days that followed, our nation was united as we struck at al Qaeda and routed the Taliban in Afghanistan. Then, our focus shifted. A second war was launched in Iraq, and we spent enormous blood and treasure to support a new government there. By the time I took office, the war in Afghanistan had entered its seventh year. But al Qaeda's leaders had escaped into Pakistan and were plotting new attacks, while the Taliban had regrouped and gone on the offensive. Without a new strategy and decisive action, our military commanders warned that we could face a resurgent al Qaeda, and a Taliban taking over large parts of Afghanistan.
For this reason, in one of the most difficult decisions that I've made as President, I ordered an additional 30,000 American troops into Afghanistan. When I announced this surge at West Point, we set clear objectives: to refocus on al Qaeda; reverse the Taliban's momentum; and train Afghan Security Forces to defend their own country. I also made it clear that our commitment would not be open-ended, and that we would begin to drawdown our forces this July.
Tonight, I can tell you that we are fulfilling that commitment. Thanks to our men and women in uniform, our civilian personnel, and our many coalition partners, we are meeting our goals. As a result, starting next month, we will be able to remove 10,000 of our troops from Afghanistan by the end of this year, and we will bring home a total of 33,000 troops by next summer, fully recovering the surge I announced at West Point. After this initial reduction, our troops will continue coming home at a steady pace as Afghan Security forces move into the lead. Our mission will change from combat to support. By 2014, this process of transition will be complete, and the Afghan people will be responsible for their own security.
We are starting this drawdown from a position of strength. Al Qaeda is under more pressure than at any time since 9/11. Together with the Pakistanis, we have taken out more than half of al Qaeda's leadership. And thanks to our intelligence professionals and Special Forces, we killed Osama bin Laden, the only leader that al Qaeda had ever known. This was a victory for all who have served since 9/11. One soldier summed it up well. "The message," he said, "is we don't forget. You will be held accountable, no matter how long it takes."
The information that we recovered from bin Laden's compound shows al Qaeda under enormous strain. Bin Laden expressed concern that al Qaeda has been unable to effectively replace senior terrorists that have been killed, and that al Qaeda has failed in its effort to portray America as a nation at war with Islam – thereby draining more widespread support. Al Qaeda remains dangerous, and we must be vigilant against attacks. But we have put al Qaeda on a path to defeat, and we will not relent until the job is done.
In Afghanistan, we've inflicted serious losses on the Taliban and taken a number of its strongholds. Along with our surge, our allies also increased their commitments, which helped stabilize more of the country. Afghan Security Forces have grown by over 100,000 troops, and in some provinces and municipalities we have already begun to transition responsibility for security to the Afghan people. In the face of violence and intimidation, Afghans are fighting and dying for their country, establishing local police forces, opening markets and schools, creating new opportunities for women and girls, and trying to turn the page on decades of war.
Of course, huge challenges remain. This is the beginning – but not the end – of our effort to wind down this war. We will have to do the hard work of keeping the gains that we have made, while we drawdown our forces and transition responsibility for security to the Afghan government. And next May, in Chicago, we will host a summit with our NATO allies and partners to shape the next phase of this transition.
We do know that peace cannot come to a land that has known so much war without a political settlement. So as we strengthen the Afghan government and Security Forces, America will join initiatives that reconcile the Afghan people, including the Taliban. Our position on these talks is clear: they must be led by the Afghan government, and those who want to be a part of a peaceful Afghanistan must break from al Qaeda, abandon violence, and abide by the Afghan Constitution. But, in part because of our military effort, we have reason to believe that progress can be made.
The goal that we seek is achievable, and can be expressed simply: no safe-haven from which al Qaeda or its affiliates can launch attacks against our homeland, or our allies. We will not try to make Afghanistan a perfect place. We will not police its streets or patrol its mountains indefinitely. That is the responsibility of the Afghan government, which must step up its ability to protect its people; and move from an economy shaped by war to one that can sustain a lasting peace. What we can do, and will do, is build a partnership with the Afghan people that endures – one that ensures that we will be able to continue targeting terrorists and supporting a sovereign Afghan government.
Of course, our efforts must also address terrorist safe-havens in Pakistan. No country is more endangered by the presence of violent extremists, which is why we will continue to press Pakistan to expand its participation in securing a more peaceful future for this war-torn region. We will work with the Pakistani government to root out the cancer of violent extremism, and we will insist that it keep its commitments. For there should be no doubt that so long as I am President, the United States will never tolerate a safe-haven for those who aim to kill us: they cannot elude us, nor escape the justice they deserve.
My fellow Americans, this has been a difficult decade for our country. We have learned anew the profound cost of war -- a cost that has been paid by the nearly 4500 Americans who have given their lives in Iraq, and the over 1500 who have done so in Afghanistan – men and women who will not live to enjoy the freedom that they defended. Thousands more have been wounded. Some have lost limbs on the field of battle, and others still battle the demons that have followed them home.
Yet tonight, we take comfort in knowing that the tide of war is receding. Fewer of our sons and daughters are serving in harm's way. We have ended our combat mission in Iraq, with 100,000 American troops already out of that country. And even as there will be dark days ahead in Afghanistan, the light of a secure peace can be seen in the distance. These long wars will come to a responsible end.
As they do, we must learn their lessons. Already this decade of war has caused many to question the nature of America's engagement around the world. Some would have America retreat from our responsibility as an anchor of global security, and embrace an isolation that ignores the very real threats that we face. Others would have America over-extend ourselves, confronting every evil that can be found abroad.
We must chart a more centered course. Like generations before, we must embrace America's singular role in the course of human events. But we must be as pragmatic as we are passionate; as strategic as we are resolute. When threatened, we must respond with force – but when that force can be targeted, we need not deploy large armies overseas. When innocents are being slaughtered and global security endangered, we don't have to choose between standing idly by or acting on our own. Instead, we must rally international action, which we are doing in Libya, where we do not have a single soldier on the ground, but are supporting allies in protecting the Libyan people and giving them the chance to determine their destiny.
In all that we do, we must remember that what sets America apart is not solely our power – it is the principles upon which our union was founded. We are a nation that brings our enemies to justice while adhering to the rule of law, and respecting the rights of all our citizens. We protect our own freedom and prosperity by extending it to others. We stand not for empire, but for self-determination. That is why we have a stake in the democratic aspirations that are now washing across the Arab World. We will support those revolutions with fidelity to our ideals, with the power of our example, and with an unwavering belief that all human beings deserve to live with freedom and dignity.
Above all, we are a nation whose strength abroad has been anchored in opportunity for our citizens at home. Over the last decade, we have spent a trillion dollars on war, at a time of rising debt and hard economic times. Now, we must invest in America's greatest resource – our people. We must unleash innovation that creates new jobs and industry, while living within our means. We must rebuild our infrastructure and find new and clean sources of energy. And most of all, after a decade of passionate debate, we must recapture the common purpose that we shared at the beginning of this time of war. For our nation draws strength from our differences, and when our union is strong no hill is too steep and no horizon is beyond our reach.
America, it is time to focus on nation building here at home.
In this effort, we draw inspiration from our fellow Americans who have sacrificed so much on our behalf. To our troops, our veterans and their families, I speak for all Americans when I say that we will keep our sacred trust with you, and provide you with the care, and benefits, and opportunity that you deserve.
I met some of those patriotic Americans at Fort Campbell. A while back, I spoke to the 101st Airborne that has fought to turn the tide in Afghanistan, and to the team that took out Osama bin Laden. Standing in front of a model of bin Laden's compound, the Navy SEAL who led that effort paid tribute to those who had been lost – brothers and sisters in arms whose names are now written on bases where our troops stand guard overseas, and on headstones in quiet corners of our country where their memory will never be forgotten. This officer - like so many others I have met with on bases, in Baghdad and Bagram, at Walter Reed and Bethesda Naval Hospital – spoke with humility about how his unit worked together as one – depending on each other, and trusting one another, as a family might do in a time of peril.
That's a lesson worth remembering – that we are all a part of one American family. Though we have known disagreement and division, we are bound together by the creed that is written into our founding documents, and a conviction that the United States of America is a country that can achieve whatever it sets out to accomplish. Now, let us finish the work at hand. Let us responsibly end these wars, and reclaim the American Dream that is at the center of our story. With confidence in our cause; with faith in our fellow citizens; and with hope in our hearts, let us go about the work of extending the promise of America – for this generation, and the next. May God bless our troops. And may God bless the United States of America.
Here's a key paragraph, as Obama mentions the intelligence that the US gained from the raid that found and killed Osama bin Laden:
The information that we recovered from bin Laden's compound shows al-Qaida under enormous strain. Bin Laden expressed concern that al-Qaida has been unable to effectively replace senior terrorists that have been killed, and that al-Qaida has failed in its effort to portray America as a nation at war with Islam – thereby draining more widespread support.
The Associated Press reports from Kabul on British foreign secretary William Hague's visit to Afghanistan, and the possibility of talks with the Taliban:
Speaking in Kabul on Wednesday, British Foreign Secretary William Hague stressed any talks with the Taliban must be an "Afghan-led process," even as the US has had contacts with Taliban emissaries as well.
"Contacts do take place," Hague said. "The United Kingdom will assist in that when it can."
Hague appeared at a news conference with the foreign minister of the United Arab Emirates, Sheik Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan. The UAE has been mentioned as a possible location to conduct negotiations with the Taliban, though Al-Nahyan declined to discuss it Wednesday.
Afghan Foreign Minister Zalmay Rasoul also cautioned against reading too much into the talks. The Taliban has said publicly there will be no negotiations until foreign troops leave Afghanistan "Contact doesn't mean negotiation," Rasoul said.
On the domestic political consequences, the Guardian's Ewen MacAskill examines how Americans have come to view US involvement in Afghanistan:
A Pew Research Centre survey on Tuesday showed support for withdrawal at an all-time high, with 56% saying troops should be brought back as soon as possible. It was the first time it recorded a majority in favour. Other polls over the last month show a similar trend.
"The polls are significant. The dam has broken. There was more bad news from Afghanistan, more deaths and President (Hamid) Karzai keeps saying insane things. That is why you even have the Republicans coming out against it. You know it's over when the Republican presidential candidates are calling for withdrawal. People are tired of it," said Larry Sabato, politics professor at the University of Virginia.
That's it, Obama has finished: that was about 14 minutes long, quite short by Obama's standards. It was short of details and didn't have much to say about what happens between 2012 and 2014.
But the key point, as I mentioned below, was Obama's highlighting of the possibility of a political settlement, when he said: "America will join initiatives that reconcile the Afghan people, including the Taliban. Our position on these talks is clear: they must be led by the Afghan government, and those who want to be a part of a peaceful Afghanistan must break from al Qaeda, abandon violence, and abide by the Afghan Constitution."
The logic of these talks has been in the ether for some time, and the New York Times and Washington Post have reported extensively on them.
Fox News's military analyst, Colonel David Hunt (retired), backs Obama's plan, and says: "It's time to end this." Well that makes a change.
The colonel isn't impressed by the quality of the Afghan armed forces: "They can't even read." Bill O'Reilly points out that Genghis Khan's troops couldn't read and it didn't seem to hurt them.
Libya got a mention in Obama's speech:
When threatened, we must respond with force – but when that force can be targeted, we need not deploy large armies overseas. When innocents are being slaughtered and global security endangered, we don't have to choose between standing idly by or acting on our own. Instead, we must rally international action, which we are doing in Libya, where we do not have a single soldier on the ground, but are supporting allies in protecting the Libyan people and giving them the chance to determine their destiny.
As someone once said: "What I am opposed to is a dumb war. What I am opposed to is a rash war."
Here's an early look at the coverage from my colleague Ewen MacAskill, going up on the Guardian site site shortly:
He was careful to avoid repeating George W Bush's ill-fated prediction on Iraq in 2003 of 'mission accomplished'. He settled instead for: "We have put al Qaeda on a path to defeat."
Obama claimed al-Qaida is under more pressure than at any time since the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington. Half of their leadership has been killed, along with its leader Osama bin Laden.
"This was a victory for all who have served since 9/11," he said.
Obama addressed criticism that the US should not be spending billions on wars overseas while the country is struggling economically at home and promised to shift from foreign to domestic issues. "America, it is time to focus on nation building here at home," he said.
What about Pakistan? The New York Times has an intriguing snippet deep within a piece on the subject:
As such, there are two reasons American planners hope to negotiate with the government of President Hamid Karzai an agreement to keep upwards of 25,000 American forces in Afghanistan, even after the 30,000 "surge" troops are withdrawn over the next 14 months, and tens of thousands of more by the end of 2014.
The reason? "For their part, administration officials make it clearer than ever that they view Pakistan's harboring of terrorist groups as the more urgent problem." But Pakistan won't allow the US to station troops inside it.
Many Democrats in Congress are making it clear that they would like to see the US troops come home more quickly.
Cox Radio's Jamie Dupree hears this from Michigan Democratic congressman John Conyers:
We don't need almost 100K troops to hunt down 50 to 100 al Qaeda... The longest war in American history continues with no end in sight.
Remember, there were just 32,000 US troops in Afghanistan on 20 January 2009, the day Obama entered the White House.
Rachel Maddow on MSNBC makes her feelings clear with the headline on her show tonight: "War more years".
Haqqani Taliban fighters in eastern Afghanistan. Photograph: Ghaith Abdul-Ahad/Guardian
Earlier this evening, administration officials held a briefing with journalists to give some background to Obama's speech, which included this point from a "senior administration official":
On the threat side, we haven't seen a terrorist threat emanating from Afghanistan for the past seven or eight years. There has been clearly fighting and threats inside of Afghanistan, but the assessment of anywhere between 50, 75 or so al-Qaida types that are embedded in Haqqani units, basically, tactical fighting units inside of Afghanistan, they are focused inside Afghanistan with no indication at all that there is any effort within Afghanistan to use Afghanistan as a launching pad to carry out attacks outside of Afghan borders.
So there are only 50 to 75 al-Qaida members now operating in Afghanistan?
The White House says that before making his speech tonight, Obama made calls to David Cameron, President Karzai, President Zardari of Pakistan, Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel.
The Republican response seems to be that Obama needs to listen to US military commanders on the ground. Here's a statement from Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate:
The drawdown of forces described by the President needs to be conducted in a manner that respects the professional judgment of our military commanders, preserves the security gains of the last year and allows for a slower pace of withdrawal if necessary. Al-Qaida has proven to be a resilient, lethal enemy and continued pressure must be brought on its senior leaders. The Taliban will not accept a unified, constitutional government in Afghanistan unless they believe that we are committed to denying them a return to power.
Marines near Camp Pendleton in California have their hair cut while Obama's Afghanistan speech plays on television. Photograph: Gregory Bull/AP
Senator John McCain weighs in, and he wants more war:
I am concerned that the withdrawal plan that President Obama announced tonight poses an unnecessary risk to the hard-won gains that our troops have made thus far in Afghanistan and to the decisive progress that must still be made. This is not the 'modest' withdrawal that I and others had hoped for and advocated.
Though we have been fighting in Afghanistan for a decade, it has only been in the past 18 months that we have had the right leadership, the right strategy, and the right level of resources. As a result, our brave men and women in uniform are taking strategically important territory away from the enemy. They are decimating Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan. And they are training Afghan security forces that are increasingly capable of leading this fight on their own. President Obama deserves a lot of credit for our recent progress in Afghanistan, but as our military commanders have repeatedly said, this progress remains fragile.
Though I disagree with the President's withdrawal plan, I nonetheless believe that America's interests in Afghanistan are far too important for us to give up the fight and walk away, as many in Congress and elsewhere now advocate. I know that Americans are war-weary and fed up with our unsustainable national debt. But what our country can least afford is the cost of failure in Afghanistan. It remains a vital national interest for the United States to succeed.
Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi – leader of the Democrats in the House of Representatives – appears to agree with members of her caucus who want a faster drawdown:
It has been the hope of many in Congress and across the country that the full drawdown of US forces would happen sooner than the President laid out – and we will continue to press for a better outcome. Concluding this war will enable us to reduce the deficit and focus fuller attention on the priorities of the American people: creating jobs and investing in our nation's future by building a strong, thriving economy for our children.
Vermont senator Bernie Sanders is more forthright on the cost to America:
This country has a $14.5 trillion national debt, in part owing to two wars that have not been paid for. We have been at war in Afghanistan for the last 10 years and paid a high price both in terms of casualties and national treasure. This year alone, we will spend about $100 billion on that war. In my view, it is time for the people of Afghanistan to take full responsibility for waging the war against the Taliban.
While we cannot withdraw all of our troops immediately, we must bring them home as soon as possible. I appreciate the president's announcement, but I believe that the withdrawal should occur at significantly faster speed and greater scope.
Democratic Georgia congressman John Lewis is even more blunt:
We need to do much, much more. The American people are sick and tired of war. They have been calling on their leadership to bring all of our young men and women home, to end our commitment to on-going conflict and find a way toward peace. Our infrastructure is crumbling, and our government is confronting mounting debt. At this time of challenge for America, we need to expend our resources here at home.
The Los Angeles Times says that Obama speech tonight reflects unease at home after a decade of war:
Not surprisingly, there is also a split along party lines as the presidential election cycle heats up. Two-thirds of Democrats, or 67%, said troops should be removed as soon as possible, up from 43% a year ago, according to the Pew poll. A majority of independents, 57%, said they supported an immediate troop withdrawal, an increase of 15 percentage points from last year.
Even Republicans who support keeping troops in Afghanistan have changed their stand. Last June, just 31% of Republicans favored a quick withdrawal; the current figure is 43%.
The New York Times has a very good piece summing up the mood in the Republican party as it moves away from the neo-con policies of the Bush years:
The aggressive posture adopted by the president, particularly pulling out troops faster than Pentagon advisers recommended, could open a discussion in Congress and on the presidential campaign. But Republicans now hold an array of positions, from the budget-minded focus of the Tea Party movement to the stay-the-course view of the party's 2008 nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, to other internationalist Republicans who fear the party has lost its way.
For the first time in generations, neither the president nor any candidates for the office have worn the military uniform. The familiar chords of patriotism may have given way to increased concerns about priorities at home.
On Cif America, Seth Jones of Rand warns that the US will need to keep forces in Afghanistan to guard against a Taliban revival:
Those who call for an immediate, full exit are making a grave mistake. Such an approach risks an outcome that should be unacceptable in Washington and London: a Taliban takeover of all, or substantial portions, of Afghanistan.
Time to wrap up this live blog – and Obama's decision appears to have not pleased Democrats particularly but opposition seems muted among Republicans other than John McCain and his dwindling band of supporters.
But the speech lacked details about the disposition of US forces remaining after 2012 until the 2014 deadline that Obama mentioned. And there was little to say about further efforts to deal with threats from Pakistan.
You can follow further coverage on the Guardian's Afghanistan section.